NOAA Releases Predictions For 2019 Hurricane Season

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) released its predictions for the Atlantic and Pacific hurricane seasons on May 23, 2019, just before the official June 1 start.

The Atlantic Hurricane Season

Despite a tropical cyclone forming prior to the official start of the season, the 2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season is currently expected to be “near-normal” this year. This means a likely range of 9-15 named storms, which includes 4-8 hurricanes with 2-4 becoming major hurricanes. Accuweather also released its Atlantic hurricane season forecast, which similarly predicts 12-14 named storms, but call it a “near-to-slightly-above-normal” season.

The Pacific Hurricane Season

On the other hand, NOAA’s outlook for the eastern and central Pacific regions predicts an “above-normal” season in both basins. This means a 70% likelihood of 15-22 named storms in the East Pacific, and 5-8 named storms in the Central Pacific. Accuweather seconds NOAA’s estimates, with 20-22 named storms and 6-8 named storms predicted in the east and central basins, respectively.  

NOAA categorizes hurricane seasons as “above-normal,” “near-normal,” and “below-normal,” and season outlooks are based on the calculated probabilities of the three. According to NOAA, “an average hurricane season produces 12 named storms, of which 6 become hurricanes, including 3 major hurricanes.” The factors influencing the 2019 hurricane seasons include the ongoing El Niño and warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures.

Regardless of hurricane season predictions, it’s always important to be prepared. For helpful information on what to do before, during, and after a hurricane, be sure to check out our hurricane preparedness guide.